Hormuz June Recovery Slips to a Coinflip on Iran's Pushback
Polymarket put Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30 at 47.5% at 21:51 UTC Sunday, down 15.5 points in 24 hours on $666k.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
Polymarket put Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 at 47.5% at 21:51 UTC Sunday — the lowest print this contract has registered. The market opened the 24-hour window at 64% and shed 15.5 points on $666k of volume, the heaviest day this market has logged in the recent stretch, with the entire slide playing out as a steady fade rather than a single gap.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Economics Pentagon's Six-Month Estimate Anchors Hormuz June Recovery at 17.5%
The Hormuz June recovery contract held at 17.5% as of 19:54 UTC Tuesday, down 4 percentage points from Monday's session open.
Filed June 16, 2026
Economics Hormuz June Contract Hits 18.5% Floor on Mine-Clearance Math
The Hormuz June contract hit 18.5% at 05:22 UTC Tuesday, down 11 points from Monday's 0.295 open, as a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline makes the June 30 deadline unreachable.
Filed June 16, 2026
Economics Hormuz Recovery at 21.5% as Mine-Clearance Clock Caps Monday Peak
The Strait of Hormuz June-recovery contract sits at 21.5% as of 19:23 UTC Monday, off a 35.5% session high; mine-clearance timelines and 8% war-risk premiums maintain the structural ceiling.