Across seven Iran contracts, Polymarket prices a slipped deadline, not a broken deal

The May 26 deadline doesn't move and the May 31 deadline barely moves, but the contracts that price what happens between them moved everything on May 25, 2026 — and they moved opposite directions on the same news. Seven Polymarket contracts on US–Iran outcomes redrew themselves overnight. The May 26 permanent-peace-deal contract sits at 8.5¢ as of 14:04 UTC, the May 31 contract at 30.5¢, the May-26 ceasefire-extension contract at 14¢, the Trump-announces-Hormuz-blockade-lifted-by-May-31 contract at 34.5¢ — every near-term treaty-or-announcement market is bleeding premium. Meanwhile the ceasefire-continues-through-May-31 contract climbed to 91.5¢, the June 30 peace-deal contract sits at 59¢, and the December 31 contract holds at 82.5¢. The questions answer themselves only when you put them next to each other: what does a 61-point spread between the truce holding and a treaty being signed say about how traders are pricing the gap between a deadline slip and a diplomatic breakdown — and does the still-positive term structure (May 31 → June 30 → Dec 31) price a treaty pushed back or one given up on?

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