May 31 US–Iran peace contract flips to 63.5% as draft deal surfaces

A Polymarket contract that has spent most of its life under 20% spent Saturday afternoon reorganizing itself around a different base case. The market on whether the United States and Iran will sign a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 last printed 63.5% at 2026-05-23T21:37 UTC, the final tick in the 1-day price series for condition 0x0e4a…b499. Twenty-four hours earlier the same contract sat at 17.5%. The repricing took just under nine hours from a 13:54 UTC base of 18.5% and was driven through by $5,982,584 of 24-hour volume — the heaviest single-day flow we have seen across the Iran cluster. The catalyst was a Trump statement and a draft-text report that landed mid-session.

¶Why now