Iran Deal Contract Sinks to 9.5% as Trump Stalls on MOU
May 31 US-Iran peace-deal market hits 9.5% Friday as Trump withholds MOU sign-off and $5.6M cycles through the 24-hour window.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192-799-449-125
- Condition
- 0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089
The May 31 US-Iran permanent-peace-deal contract stands at 9.5% as of 07:09 UTC Friday, off the session's 23.5% intraday peak. Orakll tracked the contract at 15.5% Thursday evening; $5.6M has turned over in the past 24 hours with Sunday's May 31 deadline approaching.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Start a 7-day free trial to read on.
Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Four search tools.
Full articles
Read next
Politics May 31 US-Iran peace contract crashes to 13.5%, three days left
Polymarket's May 31 US-Iran permanent-peace deal contract printed 13.5% at 00:07 UTC Thursday, down 10pp in 24h on $6.64M of volume.
Filed 6d ago
Politics Across seven Iran contracts, Polymarket prices a slipped deadline, not a broken deal
Seven US-Iran contracts moved opposite directions on May 25, 2026 — the ceasefire was bid to 91.5% while the May 31 treaty market wrote itself off at 30.5%, a 61-point gap.
Filed May 25, 2026
Politics Iran May 31 peace-deal contract collapses 40 points to 23.5%
Polymarket put a permanent US-Iran deal by May 31 at 23.5% Sunday afternoon, down 40 points in 24 hours on $5.24M of volume.