Strait at 4% of Baseline; June Hormuz Recovery Contract Holds at 21.5%
The June-end Hormuz recovery contract stands at 21.5% on Tuesday, down 5pp on the day, as daily transit calls sit at just 4% of the pre-crisis baseline with 28 days left.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
Polymarket's contract on Strait of Hormuz normalization by June 30 is priced at 21.5% as of Tuesday, June 2 — down 5 percentage points on the day and recovering from a 15.5¢ session low — as Orakll has tracked through multiple sessions. Resolution requires IMF PortWatch to record a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls; the most recent PortWatch data, from May 24, shows only 4 commercial vessels per day crossing the strait — roughly 4% of the pre-crisis baseline of 95.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
Read next
Economics Hormuz June Contract at 15.5% as Transits Trail Resolution Bar by 6×
The Hormuz June-end contract drifted to 15.5% Thursday as daily transits held at 11% of pre-crisis baseline, far below the 60-call resolution bar.
Filed June 4, 2026
Economics Two Daily Transits Keep Hormuz June Recovery at 20.5%
With just 2–4 commercial transits daily, the Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery contract holds at 20.5% as of 07:15 UTC on June 3.
Filed June 3, 2026
Economics June Hormuz Recovery Holds at 21.5% as Backlog Defies Ceasefire
The Hormuz June-recovery contract holds at 21.5% as of 05:19 UTC Tuesday, steady from a 15.5¢ session floor, as operators await durable peace.