Strait at 4% of Baseline; June Hormuz Recovery Contract Holds at 21.5%
The June-end Hormuz recovery contract stands at 21.5% on Tuesday, down 5pp on the day, as daily transit calls sit at just 4% of the pre-crisis baseline with 28 days left.
Polymarket's contract on Strait of Hormuz normalization by June 30 is priced at 21.5% as of Tuesday, June 2 — down 5 percentage points on the day and recovering from a 15.5¢ session low — as Orakll has tracked through multiple sessions. Resolution requires IMF PortWatch to record a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls; the most recent PortWatch data, from May 24, shows only 4 commercial vessels per day crossing the strait — roughly 4% of the pre-crisis baseline of 95.
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