Time Is On Our Side: May 26 Iran Deal Contract Collapses To 9.5%

The May 26 deadline contract for a US-Iran permanent peace deal trades at 9.5% as of 21:21 UTC Sunday, after collapsing 47.5 points in 24 hours on $7.36M of volume — the heaviest action on the entire Polymarket board today (get_market). One day earlier the same contract had traded as high as 68%; the unwind ran almost in a straight line, peaking near $0.68 just before midnight UTC and printing $0.095 by 20:09 UTC, where it has sat for the last four observations (get_market_history).

This is not a market that decided talks broke down. It is a market that decided talks will not sign a permanent deal in 36 hours — a distinction the rest of the curve made explicit. The May 31 sibling contract sits at 24.5%, the June 30 contract at 50.5%, and the December 31 endpoint at 76.5% — still the curve's confident anchor (get_related_markets). Traders priced out the deadline, not the deal.