May 26 peace-deal contract spikes to 41.5% on $7.26M as Trump claims draft is 'largely negotiated'

A Polymarket contract that did not exist a week ago is now the single heaviest market on the board. The "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?" contract last traded at 41.5% at 13:41 UTC on May 24 — up from a 11.5% open at 13:42 UTC on May 23 and a one-day price change of +32.5 points. Volume in the last 24 hours is $7.26M against $8.97M lifetime, meaning roughly 81% of every dollar ever wagered on this contract has changed hands since yesterday afternoon. The market opens with five days of life left and resolves at 11:59 PM ET on May 25. The book is now pricing a coin-flip on whether the White House and Tehran sign — and publicly confirm — a permanent end to military hostilities inside the next 48 hours.