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Quant Dashboard for Traders, MCP for Agents.
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A live candle-chart floor plus 26 analytics panels — screener, correlations, order-book depth, order-flow divergence, whale concentration, risk — all powered by 3 live Polymarket feeds, refreshed every minute.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
| Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m ago | BUY Yes | 0.8¢ | 240 | $2 | 1234ab |
| 16m ago | BUY Yes | 0.8¢ | 990 | $8 | 1234ab |
| 16m ago | SELL Yes | 0.7¢ | 3,000 | $21 | alwayslatetotheparty |
| 24m ago | SELL Yes | 0.7¢ | 35 | $0 | 1234ab |
| 24m ago | BUY Yes | 0.8¢ | 130 | $1 | 1234ab |
| 34m ago | BUY No | 99.3¢ | 13 | $13 | 0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802 |
| 38m ago | SELL Yes | 0.7¢ | 3,000 | $21 | alwayslatetotheparty |
| 41m ago | BUY No | 99.3¢ | 15 | $15 | 0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802 |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 21 | $21 | thelastdanceee |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 21 | $21 | Jordan073469 |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 30 | $29 | pasdefachoo |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 21 | $21 | feldupp |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 31 | $31 | toujoursenretar |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 20 | $20 | lemondechico07 |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 20 | $20 | jordan0073444 |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 25 | $25 | lamanitaa |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 21 | $20 | mouaispasmal |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 21 | $21 | compteeeee6 |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 30 | $29 | lanadelreyyy |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 20 | $20 | kayzennn |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 20 | $19 | computer1 |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 20 | $20 | ochoooo |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 99.2¢ | 25 | $25 | villapourlamama |
| 42m ago | BUY Yes | 0.8¢ | 5,000 | $40 | malavuran |
| 43m ago | SELL Yes | 0.7¢ | 5 | $0 | gamblingbling |
| 51m ago | BUY No | 99.3¢ | 28 | $28 | 0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802 |
| 53m ago | BUY No | 99.3¢ | 20 | $20 | 2365vdb |
| 58m ago | BUY No | 99.3¢ | 41 | $41 | 0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802 |
| 1h ago | BUY No | 99.3¢ | 71 | $71 | rafb |
| 1h ago | BUY No | 99.3¢ | 70 | $70 | 0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802 |
Fed Decision in July?
| # | Market | 7d | YES | 24h Δ | 24h Vol | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 1% | +0.1pp | $620k | $506k | ||
| 02 | 27% | -3.0pp | $576k | $422k | ||
| 03 | 78% | +4.4pp | $463k | $256k | ||
| 04 | 1% | -3.7pp | $364k | $269k | ||
| 05 | 14% | +4.0pp | $356k | $287k |
Z = |Δ24h| ÷ σ(daily, 7d hourly returns) · click to chart
Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean
Pearson r · 7-day log-odds returns · hourly fidelity · refreshed every 5 min
PC1 = the dominant factor (often “everything together”) · PC2/3 = independent storylines · loadings unit-norm
+ bid-weighted = market wants to buy YES · − ask-weighted = someone is fading
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade
+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off
bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+0.4ppfair 8.9¢ · mid 8.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?+0.4ppfair 14.9¢ · mid 14.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+0.2ppfair 25.7¢ · mid 25.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Iran leadership change by July 31?+0.2ppfair 2.7¢ · mid 2.5¢ · cross ~0.2¢/sharefair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)) · edge = fair − mid · + fair above mid = bid-side thin
HHI ≥ 0.5 = one whale dominates · 0.25–0.5 = concentrated · < 0.25 = distributed
+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above
Solid = sector basket · dashed gold = focused market
| Market | YES | β | R² | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | 1% | +1.90 | 0.95 | 163 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 78% | +1.26 | 0.50 | 144 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 1% | +0.75 | 0.26 | 144 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 14% | +0.10 | 0.05 | 163 |
β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic
| Market | ρ₁ | Regime | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | -0.46 | MEAN-REVERT | 167 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | +0.39 | MOMENTUM | 165 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | -0.19 | MEAN-REVERT | 167 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31? | +0.18 | MOMENTUM | 167 |
ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk
Gold band = p10–p90 envelope · red dots above p90 · grey dots below p10
Illustrative only · no slippage, no spreads, survivor bias · solid = strategy · dashed = equal-weight basket
Caveat: assumes mutual-exclusivity · spreads + slippage eat the first ~2-3pp · negative-risk events sum > 1 by design
Bars are median daily σ relative to the max bucket · ★ marks the most-volatile contract in each window
upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg
Brier 0.0866 (below the 0.25 coin-flip line — prices carry real information); well-calibrated (~3.5pp off the diagonal).
point size = sample · above diagonal = under-priced · below = overconfident
