Ten-Point Spread Over June 7 Reveals Market's MOU Timing Bet at 14.5%
As of 2026-06-04T08:43:06 UTC, the June 15 Iran deal contract trades at 14.5% after a 48,034-share YES block; the June 7 sibling sits at 4.45%, leaving a 10.05pp spread.
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Orakll tracked this contract at 13.5% just over an hour ago — "Bulky-Antler" (tetrose) has since pushed it to 14.5% with the largest YES block in the recent window. As of 2026-06-04T08:43:06 UTC, the final point in the 1d history series, the June 15 contract trades at 0.145. The June 7 sibling — expiring this Sunday June 7 — sits at 0.0445 (4.45%), per a dedicated get_market fetch.
The spread: 10.05 percentage points. That gap is the market's sharpest read on timing: not whether an Iran deal happens — the December 31 contract at 72.5% says most traders believe it will — but whether Trump's signature lands before Sunday June 7 or before Monday June 15. The 10.05pp premium is the market's estimate of the probability concentrated in that eight-day window.
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