Iran June-7 Collapses to 4.5¢, Stretching Deadline-Slip Premium to 9pp

The Polymarket contract for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026 is trading at 13.5% as of 23:57 UTC Tuesday — the exact price Orakll tracked an hour earlier — but the sibling market is telling a sharper story. The June-7 permanent peace deal contract has slid from 5.5% to 4.5% in the last hour, stretching the spread between the two deadlines to 9 percentage points, up from the 8pp noted in the prior piece. Traders have near-written off June 7; the June-15 contract's steadiness at 13.5% while the closer deadline crumbles is the market's operative thesis: what lies ahead is a deadline slip, not a permanent deal failure. The question the spread now poses is what that 13.5% YES is actually buying — another missed MOU window, or the last viable deadline before negotiations reset entirely.

¶Why now