Hormuz traffic-recovery market falls to 5% with nine days left

¶A contract the market has nearly written off

Polymarket traders price the Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract at 5.45%, as of its last trade at 17:54 UTC on May 22 — down 3.65 points over the prior 24 hours. The market pays out Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls — arrivals of container, bulk, cargo and tanker ships — for the Strait of Hormuz at or above 60 for any date through May 31; otherwise it resolves No. At 5.45%, traders are treating a normalized strait by month-end as a remote outcome, with nine days of trading left.