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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
| Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13m ago | SELL No | 95.0¢ | 1 | $1 | Ch1n0 |
| 18m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 10 | $0 | ThetaDecay2005 |
| 19m ago | BUY Yes | 5.0¢ | 20 | $1 | FakeCyanide |
| 21m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 273 | $11 | Edmond6 |
| 24m ago | BUY No | 96.0¢ | 104 | $100 | SDODNDPD |
| 33m ago | BUY Yes | 5.0¢ | 100 | $5 | genestealer |
| 37m ago | BUY Yes | 5.0¢ | 60 | $3 | Zy1205 |
| 39m ago | SELL No | 95.0¢ | 6 | $6 | kppk |
| 41m ago | SELL No | 95.0¢ | 11 | $10 | 0xA801412260D2406cd0300E343d708fE35aFe7310-1783218832132 |
| 42m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 13 | $1 | tsybulka |
| 42m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 14 | $1 | tsybulka |
| 42m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 13 | $1 | gusgusg |
| 42m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 14 | $1 | gusgusg |
| 42m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 5 | $0 | ox51aa6B8fbD20AED3C4037056C0f3f841d7ADB50E |
| 42m ago | BUY Yes | 5.8¢ | 5,892 | $340 | 0x2153bEEec2807FfcD89E2B2577eBfA8b8B048085-1765793536033 |
| 42m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 6 | $0 | ox51aa6B8fbD20AED3C4037056C0f3f841d7ADB50E |
| 42m ago | SELL No | 95.0¢ | 1,000 | $950 | AlAhmeda |
| 45m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 100 | $4 | Spuocc |
| 46m ago | BUY Yes | 5.0¢ | 60 | $3 | 0x7db9…0888 |
| 47m ago | BUY No | 96.0¢ | 104 | $100 | Freeborne |
| 49m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 50 | $2 | tsybulka |
| 49m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 50 | $2 | gusgusg |
| 49m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 9 | $0 | ox51aa6B8fbD20AED3C4037056C0f3f841d7ADB50E |
| 49m ago | SELL Yes | 4.0¢ | 1,500 | $60 | kekkone |
| 54m ago | SELL No | 95.0¢ | 200 | $190 | Trumpchi |
| 57m ago | BUY No | 96.0¢ | 1 | $1 | asdasasdsaasd |
| 1h ago | SELL Yes | 5.0¢ | 71 | $4 | OkieDokiePeon |
| 1h ago | SELL Yes | 5.0¢ | 29 | $1 | Yuki-uu |
| 1h ago | SELL Yes | 4.2¢ | 90,000 | $3.8k | 0x8c66E28FbE7Ede7F57bA6CBc70408DfF442944F3-1777220320442 |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 6.0¢ | 17 | $1 | ZetWonderland |
| # | Market | 7d | YES | 24h Δ | 24h Vol | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 5% | -3.0pp | $1.2M | $529k | ||
| 02 | 1% | — | $408k | $1.8M | ||
| 03 | 2% | -0.2pp | $398k | $497k | ||
| 04 | 1% | +0.2pp | $356k | $225k | ||
| 05 | 44% | +20.5pp | $255k | $51k |
Z = |Δ24h| ÷ σ(daily, 7d hourly returns) · click to chart
Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean
Pearson r · 7-day log-odds returns · hourly fidelity · refreshed every 5 min
PC1 = the dominant factor (often “everything together”) · PC2/3 = independent storylines · loadings unit-norm
+ bid-weighted = market wants to buy YES · − ask-weighted = someone is fading
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade
+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off
bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?+0.5ppfair 5.0¢ · mid 4.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+0.3ppfair 16.8¢ · mid 16.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/shareStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?+0.3ppfair 19.8¢ · mid 19.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/shareWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?-0.3ppfair 77.2¢ · mid 77.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/sharefair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)) · edge = fair − mid · + fair above mid = bid-side thin
HHI ≥ 0.5 = one whale dominates · 0.25–0.5 = concentrated · < 0.25 = distributed
+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above
Solid = sector basket · dashed gold = focused market
| Market | YES | β | R² | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | 44% | +2.00 | 0.75 | 41 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 5% | +1.83 | 0.92 | 163 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 1% | +1.81 | 0.88 | 129 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2% | +0.11 | 0.06 | 164 |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1% | +0.00 | NaN | 119 |
β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic
| Market | ρ₁ | Regime | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | -0.30 | MEAN-REVERT | 166 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | -0.22 | MEAN-REVERT | 166 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | -0.19 | MEAN-REVERT | 98 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | -0.16 | MEAN-REVERT | 166 |
ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk
Gold band = p10–p90 envelope · red dots above p90 · grey dots below p10
Illustrative only · no slippage, no spreads, survivor bias · solid = strategy · dashed = equal-weight basket
Caveat: assumes mutual-exclusivity · spreads + slippage eat the first ~2-3pp · negative-risk events sum > 1 by design
Bars are median daily σ relative to the max bucket · ★ marks the most-volatile contract in each window
upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg
Brier 0.0847 (below the 0.25 coin-flip line — prices carry real information); well-calibrated (~3.3pp off the diagonal).
point size = sample · above diagonal = under-priced · below = overconfident
