Iran airspace contract whipsaws to 40.5% after May 22 partial shutdown
Polymarket puts a May 31 Iranian airspace closure at 40.5% as of 15:26 UTC May 23, up 19 points in 24 hours after a wild overnight session.
The Market · LiveTrade ↗YES probability · 24h change
- 24h vol
- $196k
- Liquidity
- $26k
- Contract
- iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756
Polymarket's contract on whether Iran closes its airspace by May 31 trades at 40.5% as of 15:26 UTC May 23, up 19 points over 24 hours on $1.07M of volume. The Yes side started the window at 22.5%, spiked to an intraday max of 99.6% late on May 22, then collapsed back through the 50s and into the low 40s through the European morning. The market is no longer pricing a weekend scare — it is pricing ambiguity over what counts.
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