Iran airspace contract whipsaws to 40.5% after May 22 partial shutdown
Polymarket puts a May 31 Iranian airspace closure at 40.5% as of 15:26 UTC May 23, up 19 points in 24 hours after a wild overnight session.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
Polymarket's contract on whether Iran closes its airspace by May 31 trades at 40.5% as of 15:26 UTC May 23, up 19 points over 24 hours on $1.07M of volume. The Yes side started the window at 22.5%, spiked to an intraday max of 99.6% late on May 22, then collapsed back through the 50s and into the low 40s through the European morning. The market is no longer pricing a weekend scare — it is pricing ambiguity over what counts.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Politics Israel Strikes Shut IKA; Iran Airspace Closure Market Surges to 73.9%
The 'Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?' contract reached 73.95% at 19:42 UTC Wednesday — up 63.9pp in 24 hours — after Israeli strikes forced Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation to issue an immediate, indefinite suspension of all flight operations at Imam Khomeini International Airport.
Filed June 17, 2026
Politics Pakistan 'Final Text' Claim Drives June-15 Iran Deal to 19.7%
The June-15 US-Iran peace deal climbed to 19.7% at 18:57 UTC Friday, up 8.05pp from its 11.65% session open, as Pakistan's PM declared a 'final agreed upon text' was reached.
Filed June 12, 2026
Politics Trump's 'Great Settlement' Claim Keeps June-15 Iran Deal at 13.65%
The June-15 Iran peace-deal contract holds at 13.65% at 09:01 UTC Friday, up 9.35pp from Thursday's 4.3% open, after Trump declared a deal 'largely negotiated' while Tehran disputes finalization.