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A live candle-chart floor plus 26 analytics panels — screener, correlations, order-book depth, order-flow divergence, whale concentration, risk — all powered by 3 live Polymarket feeds, refreshed every minute.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
| Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9m ago | BUY No | 96.6¢ | 9 | $8 | 0x49a3…ad7d |
| 37m ago | BUY Yes | 3.5¢ | 29 | $1 | 0x87e5…8318 |
| 55m ago | SELL No | 96.5¢ | 12 | $11 | phcrux1 |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 3.5¢ | 257 | $9 | ChadLiteplus |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 3.5¢ | 312 | $11 | Majas |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 3.7¢ | 27,529 | $1.0k | ChadLiteplus |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 3.7¢ | 223 | $8 | WarriorH |
| 2h ago | BUY No | 96.8¢ | 158 | $153 | EmilEisert |
| 2h ago | BUY No | 96.8¢ | 620 | $600 | EmilEisert |
| 2h ago | BUY No | 96.8¢ | 1,033 | $1000 | EmilEisert |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 3.3¢ | 61 | $2 | 0x169e…dbe0 |
| 2h ago | BUY No | 96.8¢ | 22 | $21 | 0x16A6D5296965d8543176AAe7BcA776A1F3CB0f40-1772096313989 |
| 3h ago | SELL Yes | 3.2¢ | 30 | $1 | ssanqk |
| 3h ago | BUY Yes | 3.3¢ | 30 | $1 | ssanqk |
| 3h ago | SELL No | 96.7¢ | 367 | $354 | 0x299792458 |
| 3h ago | BUY No | 96.8¢ | 10 | $10 | Taxi |
| 4h ago | BUY Yes | 3.3¢ | 606 | $20 | robena.tech |
| 4h ago | SELL No | 96.7¢ | 2 | $2 | 0x46eE1D1544fD8262329FbA8AaA43269A57733948-1763081135169 |
| 5h ago | BUY Yes | 3.3¢ | 303 | $10 | Sergioser |
| 5h ago | BUY Yes | 3.3¢ | 100 | $3 | azetamin |
| 6h ago | SELL No | 96.7¢ | 9 | $9 | 3he4ynvj |
| 6h ago | SELL Yes | 3.1¢ | 600 | $19 | ViscaElBarca |
| 6h ago | BUY No | 96.9¢ | 27,135 | $26.3k | Phlox |
| 6h ago | BUY No | 96.6¢ | 7,988 | $7.7k | Phlox |
| 6h ago | SELL Yes | 3.6¢ | 29 | $1 | 0x1bb7…c15e |
| 7h ago | BUY Yes | 3.7¢ | 27 | $1 | Rudilfovich |
| 8h ago | BUY Yes | 3.7¢ | 270 | $10 | battbattbatt |
| 8h ago | BUY Yes | 3.7¢ | 28 | $1 | 0x5cc1…f345 |
| 8h ago | BUY No | 96.4¢ | 250 | $241 | Konfucious |
| 9h ago | SELL Yes | 3.6¢ | 234 | $8 | neutralwave23 |
| # | Market | 7d | YES | 24h Δ | 24h Vol | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 3% | -0.8pp | $285k | $974k | ||
| 02 | 21% | -4.0pp | $183k | $439k | ||
| 03 | 14% | -0.5pp | $181k | $1.2M | ||
| 04 | 57% | +14.8pp | $180k | $130k | ||
| 05 | 8% | -4.0pp | $152k | $105k |
Z = |Δ24h| ÷ σ(daily, 7d hourly returns) · click to chart
Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean
Pearson r · 7-day log-odds returns · hourly fidelity · refreshed every 5 min
PC1 = the dominant factor (often “everything together”) · PC2/3 = independent storylines · loadings unit-norm
+ bid-weighted = market wants to buy YES · − ask-weighted = someone is fading
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade
+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off
bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+0.7ppfair 14.7¢ · mid 14.0¢ · cross ~1.0¢/shareUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?+0.4ppfair 7.9¢ · mid 7.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+0.3ppfair 20.8¢ · mid 20.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?-0.3ppfair 77.2¢ · mid 77.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/sharefair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)) · edge = fair − mid · + fair above mid = bid-side thin
HHI ≥ 0.5 = one whale dominates · 0.25–0.5 = concentrated · < 0.25 = distributed
+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above
Solid = sector basket · dashed gold = focused market
| Market | YES | β | R² | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 8% | +1.98 | 0.96 | 163 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 3% | +1.57 | 0.59 | 76 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 57% | +1.47 | 0.68 | 167 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 21% | +0.34 | 0.18 | 167 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 14% | +0.02 | 0.00 | 163 |
β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic
| Market | ρ₁ | Regime | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | -0.26 | MEAN-REVERT | 167 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | +0.19 | MOMENTUM | 167 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | -0.19 | MEAN-REVERT | 167 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | -0.12 | RANDOM | 167 |
ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk
Gold band = p10–p90 envelope · red dots above p90 · grey dots below p10
Illustrative only · no slippage, no spreads, survivor bias · solid = strategy · dashed = equal-weight basket
Caveat: assumes mutual-exclusivity · spreads + slippage eat the first ~2-3pp · negative-risk events sum > 1 by design
Bars are median daily σ relative to the max bucket · ★ marks the most-volatile contract in each window
upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg
Brier 0.0835 (below the 0.25 coin-flip line — prices carry real information); well-calibrated (~3.3pp off the diagonal).
point size = sample · above diagonal = under-priced · below = overconfident
