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Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
| Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 241 | $108 | SwissGeneva |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 28 | $13 | Amitbm |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 456 | $210 | 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 22 | $10 | moskvich |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 106 | $48 | sabbaco14 |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 16 | $7 | moskvich |
| 10d ago | BUY No | 55.0¢ | 2 | $1 | ox51aa6B8fbD20AED3C4037056C0f3f841d7ADB50E |
| 10d ago | BUY No | 55.0¢ | 20 | $11 | gusgusg |
| 10d ago | BUY No | 55.0¢ | 20 | $11 | tsybulka |
| 10d ago | BUY No | 55.0¢ | 2 | $1 | big-bird1 |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 2,065 | $950 | 0x6dB9f206EFC2fA7a2772a6fEcD10371468F24c59-1779317320144 |
| 10d ago | SELL No | 54.0¢ | 13 | $7 | 0x0b42…e180 |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 149 | $67 | Elposton |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 22 | $10 | Justaway.exe |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 18 | $8 | Weedkl |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 44 | $20 | 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 625 | $281 | gamblingx |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 435 | $200 | 0x56b60Ff43A6255f171554119B983274746e37E94-1750998608409 |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 33 | $15 | 0xcff670af7b886c004d6915cc03e5a114728d52ae-1793289299283 |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 54 | $25 | 0x77C09d5988A325e9bCb8EFc639062e565d7E4C4D-1771524818276 |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 34 | $16 | 0xd6f9…e95d |
| 10d ago | SELL No | 54.0¢ | 333 | $180 | Contestable-Parfait |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 981 | $442 | T.vono2n |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 22 | $10 | Denker79 |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 231 | $104 | JewishGroyper |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 2 | $1 | PMBN |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 22 | $10 | 0xfc8bd2aD478ee32756dfe35EA5964274C07d8e92-1775847293849 |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 130 | $60 | Boomrich |
| 10d ago | SELL Yes | 45.0¢ | 78 | $35 | 0x5e83…3bb7 |
| 10d ago | BUY Yes | 46.0¢ | 50 | $23 | hotphysics |
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
| # | Market | 7d | YES | 24h Δ | 24h Vol | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 20% | +2.9pp | $368k | $294k | ||
| 02 | 5% | -0.9pp | $271k | $105k | ||
| 03 | 10% | -1.0pp | $219k | $438k | ||
| 04 | 44% | +11.0pp | $204k | $98k | ||
| 05 | 8% | -1.0pp | $202k | $137k |
Z = |Δ24h| ÷ σ(daily, 7d hourly returns) · click to chart
Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean
Pearson r · 7-day log-odds returns · hourly fidelity · refreshed every 5 min
PC1 = the dominant factor (often “everything together”) · PC2/3 = independent storylines · loadings unit-norm
+ bid-weighted = market wants to buy YES · − ask-weighted = someone is fading
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade
Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?+0.7ppfair 5.4¢ · mid 4.7¢ · cross ~0.8¢/share
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?+0.7ppfair 14.7¢ · mid 14.0¢ · cross ~1.0¢/share
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+0.6ppfair 7.7¢ · mid 7.1¢ · cross ~0.8¢/share
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?-0.4ppfair 93.6¢ · mid 94.0¢ · cross ~0.5¢/sharefair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)) · edge = fair − mid · + fair above mid = bid-side thin
Solid = sector basket · dashed gold = focused market
| Market | YES | β | R² | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 8% | +1.19 | 0.61 | 45 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 20% | +0.81 | 0.43 | 45 |
β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic
| Market | ρ₁ | Regime | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | -0.27 | MEAN-REVERT | 157 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | -0.25 | MEAN-REVERT | 164 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | -0.21 | MEAN-REVERT | 157 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | -0.19 | MEAN-REVERT | 162 |
ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk
Gold band = p10–p90 envelope · red dots above p90 · grey dots below p10
Illustrative only · no slippage, no spreads, survivor bias · solid = strategy · dashed = equal-weight basket
Caveat: assumes mutual-exclusivity · spreads + slippage eat the first ~2-3pp · negative-risk events sum > 1 by design
Bars are median daily σ relative to the max bucket · ★ marks the most-volatile contract in each window
upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg
Brier 0.083 (below the 0.25 coin-flip line — prices carry real information); well-calibrated (~3.3pp off the diagonal).
point size = sample · above diagonal = under-priced · below = overconfident
+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off
bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized
+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above
HHI ≥ 0.5 = one whale dominates · 0.25–0.5 = concentrated · < 0.25 = distributed
