12 markets · click to focus
Layout
Quant Dashboard for Traders, MCP for Agents.
Orakll Premium
A live candle-chart floor plus 26 analytics panels — screener, correlations, order-book depth, order-flow divergence, whale concentration, risk — all powered by 3 live Polymarket feeds, refreshed every minute.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
| Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9m ago | SELL No | 89.0¢ | 2 | $2 | rames3s |
| 9m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 10 | $9 | tourists |
| 9m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 1 | $1 | 0x19f45A1C0691Ae40b4542ab8E0C792ce80233245-1783087650807 |
| 9m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 0 | $0 | thpqcyp273xu |
| 9m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 0 | $0 | mr2ful34pnzm |
| 9m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 1,541 | $1.4k | tourists |
| 10m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 1 | $1 | SleepyShawn |
| 10m ago | SELL Yes | 9.0¢ | 2,860 | $257 | Oajfkdojdndlxojx |
| 16m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 50 | $45 | Esmememeralda |
| 16m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 19 | $17 | Esmememeralda |
| 19m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 125 | $113 | DFK |
| 19m ago | SELL No | 90.0¢ | 375 | $338 | DFK |
| 20m ago | BUY No | 90.0¢ | 7,894 | $7.1k | AngryRhino |
| 20m ago | BUY No | 91.0¢ | 375 | $341 | WarriorH |
| 25m ago | BUY Yes | 11.0¢ | 79 | $9 | Ox648bAD7080caA1a9931B2774B20e87ECa75900ba |
| 31m ago | SELL Yes | 10.0¢ | 66 | $7 | Ox648bAD7080caA1a9931B2774B20e87ECa75900ba |
| 38m ago | SELL Yes | 10.0¢ | 1,000 | $100 | macann |
| 51m ago | BUY No | 90.0¢ | 3 | $3 | 20sec |
| 1h ago | SELL Yes | 10.0¢ | 582 | $58 | 0xdCd3E420C1f28dd5CEDF171FAe2A0e41E64547b6-1770601538017 |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 11.0¢ | 9 | $1 | bonmucho |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 11.0¢ | 9 | $1 | bonmucho |
| 1h ago | BUY No | 90.0¢ | 11 | $10 | SanctionedBets |
| 1h ago | BUY No | 90.0¢ | 1 | $1 | 0x4c61…109b |
| 1h ago | BUY No | 90.0¢ | 8 | $8 | 0x6dea…79ec |
| 2h ago | SELL No | 89.0¢ | 1 | $1 | 0x45C0081f45cF27409c327560bdd2312c7324f541-1781608728985 |
| 2h ago | SELL Yes | 10.0¢ | 88 | $9 | 0x5cb4…8aef |
| 2h ago | SELL No | 89.0¢ | 30 | $27 | 0x7b84Bd1a12AAc89CDe361a09a3176BE7ecB9a108-1773318878799 |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 11.0¢ | 91 | $10 | 0x11ae0df4a12606771e5eaa3E39CD344e769C44b2-1772692866053 |
| 3h ago | SELL No | 89.0¢ | 200 | $178 | TitoPity |
| 3h ago | BUY Yes | 11.0¢ | 88 | $10 | 0x5cb4…8aef |
| # | Market | 7d | YES | 24h Δ | 24h Vol | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 11% | +4.0pp | $796k | $467k | ||
| 02 | 1% | +0.2pp | $520k | $361k | ||
| 03 | 7% | +1.8pp | $397k | $92k | ||
| 04 | 68% | +1.0pp | $347k | $460k | ||
| 05 | 3% | -0.2pp | $301k | $301k |
Z = |Δ24h| ÷ σ(daily, 7d hourly returns) · click to chart
Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean
Pearson r · 7-day log-odds returns · hourly fidelity · refreshed every 5 min
PC1 = the dominant factor (often “everything together”) · PC2/3 = independent storylines · loadings unit-norm
+ bid-weighted = market wants to buy YES · − ask-weighted = someone is fading
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade
+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off
bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?-0.4ppfair 91.1¢ · mid 91.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/shareStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?+0.4ppfair 10.9¢ · mid 10.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+0.4ppfair 14.9¢ · mid 14.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+0.3ppfair 15.8¢ · mid 15.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/sharefair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)) · edge = fair − mid · + fair above mid = bid-side thin
HHI ≥ 0.5 = one whale dominates · 0.25–0.5 = concentrated · < 0.25 = distributed
+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above
Solid = sector basket · dashed gold = focused market
| Market | YES | β | R² | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 7% | +1.94 | 0.87 | 101 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | 11% | +1.29 | 0.73 | 158 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 1% | +0.69 | 0.42 | 17 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 68% | +0.30 | 0.18 | 76 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 3% | +0.04 | 0.01 | 163 |
β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic
| Market | ρ₁ | Regime | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | -0.29 | MEAN-REVERT | 167 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | -0.26 | MEAN-REVERT | 167 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | -0.24 | MEAN-REVERT | 167 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | -0.22 | MEAN-REVERT | 165 |
ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk
Gold band = p10–p90 envelope · red dots above p90 · grey dots below p10
Illustrative only · no slippage, no spreads, survivor bias · solid = strategy · dashed = equal-weight basket
Caveat: assumes mutual-exclusivity · spreads + slippage eat the first ~2-3pp · negative-risk events sum > 1 by design
Bars are median daily σ relative to the max bucket · ★ marks the most-volatile contract in each window
upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg
Brier 0.0835 (below the 0.25 coin-flip line — prices carry real information); well-calibrated (~3.4pp off the diagonal).
point size = sample · above diagonal = under-priced · below = overconfident
