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A live candle-chart floor plus 26 analytics panels — screener, correlations, order-book depth, order-flow divergence, whale concentration, risk — all powered by 3 live Polymarket feeds, refreshed every minute.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13m ago | BUY No | 89.0¢ | 46 | $41 | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 |
| 26m ago | BUY No | 89.0¢ | 5 | $4 | tvdvdbb4fj |
| 28m ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 33,400 | $3.7k | ZiK. |
| 29m ago | BUY No | 89.0¢ | 574 | $511 | WarriorH |
| 30m ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 352 | $39 | Gustavolib |
| 40m ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 12 | $1 | MuszkaAndris |
| 48m ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 8 | $1 | 0x67e4…34ce |
| 51m ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 271 | $32 | hugosisnando |
| 54m ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 100 | $11 | liquelique |
| 54m ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 285 | $31 | Gustavolib |
| 1h ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 270 | $30 | den299k |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 66 | $8 | 0x5e9f…91db |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 9 | $1 | prodset |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 48 | $6 | prodset |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 100 | $12 | Thithithi |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 42 | $5 | GONZALOSILVERO |
| 1h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 1,667 | $200 | 0xA29Eb2A6b80877200AA3f63777Bb395cE3657796-1772079645456 |
| 1h ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 43 | $5 | 0xA867eB58228A4625e2eD57C87b550545356e71ab-1772276393192 |
| 1h ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 20 | $2 | 0x1ef01de817862024966e8242e923a6 |
| 1h ago | BUY No | 89.0¢ | 6 | $5 | 7HGH7HYJ |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 500 | $60 | alligatorr |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 100 | $12 | alligatorr |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 150 | $18 | alligatorr |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 8 | $1 | OSoberano |
| 2h ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 8 | $1 | 0x40B8338C544A992b0fB85Fc127cB37aB97094A16-1768810229168 |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 8 | $1 | 0x40B8338C544A992b0fB85Fc127cB37aB97094A16-1768810229168 |
| 2h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 162 | $19 | 7Ouros |
| 2h ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 9 | $1 | Xucvao |
| 3h ago | SELL Yes | 11.0¢ | 10 | $1 | SuperFerengi |
| 3h ago | BUY Yes | 12.0¢ | 104 | $12 | FnarckPalloin |
| # | Market | 7d | YES | 24h Δ | 24h Vol | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 12% | -2.0pp | $929k | $1.5M | ||
| 02 | 96% | +2.6pp | $633k | $390k | ||
| 03 | 88% | +2.0pp | $437k | $914k | ||
| 04 | 10% | — | $310k | $2.6M | ||
| 05 | 92% | +1.0pp | $294k | $272k |
Z = |Δ24h| ÷ σ(daily, 7d hourly returns) · click to chart
Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean
Pearson r · 7-day log-odds returns · hourly fidelity · refreshed every 5 min
PC1 = the dominant factor (often “everything together”) · PC2/3 = independent storylines · loadings unit-norm
+ bid-weighted = market wants to buy YES · − ask-weighted = someone is fading
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade
+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off
bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?+0.4ppfair 5.9¢ · mid 5.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+0.4ppfair 8.9¢ · mid 8.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+0.4ppfair 9.9¢ · mid 9.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/sharefair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)) · edge = fair − mid · + fair above mid = bid-side thin
HHI ≥ 0.5 = one whale dominates · 0.25–0.5 = concentrated · < 0.25 = distributed
+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above
Solid = sector basket · dashed gold = focused market
| Market | YES | β | R² | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | 96% | +2.40 | 0.86 | 15 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 12% | +1.85 | 0.93 | 143 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 10% | +0.10 | 0.06 | 136 |
β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic
| Market | ρ₁ | Regime | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | -0.33 | MEAN-REVERT | 168 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | -0.19 | MEAN-REVERT | 159 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | -0.15 | RANDOM | 168 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | -0.12 | RANDOM | 168 |
ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk
Gold band = p10–p90 envelope · red dots above p90 · grey dots below p10
Illustrative only · no slippage, no spreads, survivor bias · solid = strategy · dashed = equal-weight basket
Caveat: assumes mutual-exclusivity · spreads + slippage eat the first ~2-3pp · negative-risk events sum > 1 by design
Bars are median daily σ relative to the max bucket · ★ marks the most-volatile contract in each window
upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg
Brier 0.0837 (below the 0.25 coin-flip line — prices carry real information); well-calibrated (~3.1pp off the diagonal).
point size = sample · above diagonal = under-priced · below = overconfident
