Iran Airspace Contract Hit 99% Overnight, Now 40.7% After NOTAM Misses Resolution List
The May 24 Yes spiked from 7.5% to a 99.25% peak before falling to 40.7% at 10:41 UTC May 23 on $4.51M of 24-hour volume.
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Polymarket's contract on whether Iran closes its airspace by May 24 spiked from 7.5% to a 99.25% peak in roughly eight hours overnight, then crashed to 40.7% by mid-morning Saturday — a $4.51M intraday round-trip on news that Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing western Tehran's Flight Information Region but stopping short of the specific airport list the contract resolves on. As of 10:41 UTC on May 23, the Yes is back in the low 40s after kissing 99%. The question is no longer whether something happened. It's whether what happened counts.
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