Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $303k volume
Why it resolved
The May 20-21 unsealing of Raúl Castro's indictment on murder and conspiracy charges related to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown sparked an initial price hold near 50¢, but the May 22 collapse from 50¢ to 4¢ reflects the market's realization that despite the indictment, Castro was NOT captured or taken into U.S. custody—only an arrest warrant was issued while he remained in Cuba. The market priced out custody odds entirely as the May 31 deadline approached without any military operation to capture him.
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Was the price honest
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