Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $2.1M volume
Why it resolved
Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary on May 14, 2026 marked the peak resignation crisis; the market had spiked to 56¢ on May 11 when Starmer's defiant speech triggered 4 PPSs to resign and 70+ MPs to call for his exit. However, on May 12, over 110 Labour MPs signed a support letter stabilizing him temporarily (price dropped from 56¢ to 36¢). After Streeting's May 14 resignation—the most senior departure—the price fell to 16¢. A brief recovery spike to 38¢ on May 17 suggested some renewed uncertainty, but by May 18 the market collapsed toward zero as it became clear Starmer would survive the crisis through to the May 31 deadline, resolving NO.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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