Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
June 2, 2026 · $31.9M volume
Why it resolved
The May 25 US strikes on Iranian military sites (missile launch sites and boats) caused the ceasefire to hold, confirmed by Trump's approval of a 60-day memorandum of understanding by May 28. The market moved from 80¢ to 56¢ on May 22-23 as tensions peaked over enrichment disagreements and Israeli threats, then recovered from 56¢ to 90¢+ as Trump signaled ceasefire extension was imminent and finalized by month-end — the market front-ran the diplomatic progress.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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