Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $5.0M volume
Why it resolved
Iran did not publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026 deadline. The market initially priced ~42¢ odds but collapsed -32pp to 10¢ on May 1 as traders ceased expecting a deal; a brief +11pp rally to 21¢ on May 24 reflected tentative agreement signals, but talks deteriorated by May 26 (−13pp to 8¢), and the contract bled to 0¢ by deadline as no formal surrender agreement materialized.
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Was the price honest
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