Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $2.5M volume
Why it resolved
Israel's military escalation in Lebanon between May 18-23 prompted temporary spikes in closure risk, but the ceasefire framework ultimately held and Israel did not initiate a major airspace closure by May 31; the market repriced sharply downward on May 23 evening (45¢ → 10¢, -35pp) as traders realized the escalation risk was contained and a broad Israeli closure would not materialize.
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Why it resolved, with sources
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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