US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $20.5M volume
Why it resolved
Trump cancelled a planned envoy trip to Pakistan on April 25, 2026, citing divisions within Iranian leadership and signaling a breakdown in uranium transfer negotiations. The market dropped from 20¢ to 8¢ (-11pp) as traders repriced the deal's failure risk. Despite a May 24 draft MOU proposing a 60-day negotiation window for uranium disposition, no actual transfer occurred by the May 31 deadline, and the market settled at 0¢ as it became clear possession would not be achieved.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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