Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $8.6M volume
Why it resolved
Iran's May 23 announcement of western airspace closure initially spiked the price from 30¢ to 99¢ (+69pp) as traders believed it met the 'major closure' criteria, but the market rapidly repriced downward (99¢→26¢ over two days) once it became clear the closure was limited to the western sector with 8 airports still operational and daylight-only restrictions—failing to qualify as a 'broad' closure requiring suspension of at least two major airports. The price then drifted from 26¢ to 0¢ as the May 31 deadline neared with no qualifying closure materialized.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.