Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $117k volume
Why it resolved
Saudi Arabia imposed a temporary ban on US military aircraft use of its airspace and bases on May 7, 2026, in response to Trump's unannounced Project Freedom operation, but lifted it by May 8 after diplomatic talks with Crown Prince MBS. The market repriced sharply downward 49¢→25¢ on May 16, reflecting traders' recognition that no permanent policy ban would materialize, then continued drifting toward 0¢ as the May 31 deadline approached with no standing restriction announced.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.