Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $3.0M volume
Why it resolved
The market resolved NO as no definitive Trump agreement to Iranian transit fees materialized by May 31. The 47¢→14¢ drop on April 29 reflected growing skepticism after Secretary Rubio dismissed Iran's reopening proposal as conditioning transit on Iranian permission/payment. The subsequent 14¢→4¢ decline on May 2-3 tracked deteriorating ceasefire terms, with the May 24 deal explicitly stipulating 'no tolls' on the Strait, and final collapse came June 1 when Iran halted all negotiations—the market had priced out a YES by early May.
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Was the price honest
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