Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $51k volume
Why it resolved
On April 21, Vice President Vance's planned second Pakistan trip was postponed indefinitely after Iran refused to participate in talks, with Trump citing security concerns. The market priced out a visit by May 31 as the indefinite postponement effectively became a cancellation—it fell from 42¢ to 4¢ over May 1-16 as the deadline approached without any reinstatement of the trip, despite late May optimism about a U.S.-Iran deal being "very close," which Vance negotiated from Washington, not Pakistan.
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