Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?
June 2, 2026 · $503k volume
Why it resolved
No candidate secured 50%+ in the first round. Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.74%, followed by Iván Cepeda at 40.90%, both well short of an absolute majority. The market had repriced this outcome by January 2026 (after settling to 16¢) and maintained a low price through May as the fragmented field became clear; the final price of 0¢ locked in on May 31 when official results confirmed no first-round winner.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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