Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $1.2M volume
Why it resolved
Trump paused Project Freedom on May 5 citing progress toward an Iran deal, and failed to restart it by the May 31 deadline. The May 26 spike to 72¢ was driven by fabricated reports of a completed memorandum of understanding; the White House called these reports a 'complete fabrication' hours later, causing the price to collapse to 16¢. Negotiations remained stalled through May 31 with no definitive restart announcement, leading to resolution NO.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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