Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $105k volume
Why it resolved
Ukrainian defense success near Lyman in late April combined with ceasefire negotiations in early May 2026 made Russian capture unlikely by the deadline. On April 23, Ukrainian troops repelled nine Russian assault attempts near Lyman (price fell from 25¢ to 12¢), signaling stalled Russian progress. On May 4-7, Russia and Ukraine announced competing ceasefires; a three-day ceasefire was agreed for May 9-11, 2026, effectively pausing large-scale operations (price fell from 12¢ to 2¢). With only ~3 weeks remaining until the May 31 deadline and military momentum stalled by ceasefire, the market repriced to near-zero.
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Was the price honest
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