Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $9.4M volume
Why it resolved
No official announcement lifting the blockade was made by the May 31 deadline. Trump paused military operations on May 5 citing 'great progress' toward a deal, which spiked the price from 28¢ to 46¢. But negotiations collapsed after military escalation on May 25, and Trump rejected key terms (Iran-Oman sharing shipping oversight) on May 28, causing a sharp decline to 11¢ by May 28. The market correctly priced the non-occurrence: absent the required explicit announcement, it resolved NO.
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