Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $1.1M volume
Why it resolved
Iran never publicly agreed to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 deadline. Despite Trump's May 23 announcement of a deal being 'largely negotiated' (which spiked the price from 3¢ to 17¢), Iran immediately rejected the characterization via state media, insisting it would continue managing the waterway. The market repriced hard on May 30 (17¢ → 4¢) as the gap between Trump's framing and Iran's actual position became untenable; Iran's insistence on maintaining control meant the resolution criteria for unrestricted shipping could not be satisfied.
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