Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $904k volume
Why it resolved
Trump announced on May 23 that an Iran deal had been "largely negotiated," sparking a +53pp spike from 26¢ to 78¢ as markets priced in potential sanctions relief and asset unfreezing. However, Trump subsequently hardened his stance, insisting "no sanctions, no money" and no final deal materialized before the May 31 deadline. The contract bled from 78¢ back to 23¢ over 48 hours as the deal fell apart, ultimately settling to 0¢ at resolution.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.