Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $38.3M volume
Why it resolved
Despite massive anti-regime protests (1.5-5 million people, 8-9 January 2026) and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 in US-Israeli strikes, Iran's core institutional structures remained intact with Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding as new Supreme Leader on 8-9 March 2026. The IRGC and security forces remained loyal; the Assembly of Experts executed an orderly (if contested) succession. The market, which opened ~6¢ reflecting regime-fall optimism, steadily bled toward 0¢ as each shock (protests, Khamenei's death) failed to collapse the Islamic Republic by May 31 deadline, settling at 0¢ on 1 June 2026 as the regime demonstrated institutional resilience through succession and repression.
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Was the price honest
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