US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $5.2M volume
Why it resolved
Trump declined to approve the tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal negotiated by May 28; his May 29 Situation Room meeting ended without a final determination, and his additional demands (stricter nuclear verification, Lebanon ceasefire as a condition) and Iran's insistence on tied issue (Lebanon) proved irreconcilable. The price had climbed from 20¢ to 54¢ on May 28-29 on deal hopes, then fell to 26¢ on the May 29 evening announcement that Trump would not approve, leaving no qualifying announcement by the May 31 deadline.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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