Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $200k volume
Why it resolved
María Corina Machado remained in exile throughout the market period despite announcing intentions to return "before end of 2026." The market steadily repriced from 50¢ toward 0¢ as her return faced obstacles: Delcy Rodríguez's warnings about legal consequences, the need for U.S. coordination, and required democratic preconditions (neutral elections, freed prisoners). The largest move (-14pp on April 8) occurred when it became clear her return was conditional and distant; the final week fade (-10pp on May 27) locked in the NO as the May 31 deadline passed without entry.
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