Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?
June 1, 2026 · $225k volume
Why it resolved
Alex Borg's margin to become Prime Minister was eliminated when early May polling (April 30-May 6, May 7-13) consistently showed Labour leading by 10.5pp—a threshold the Nationalist challenger could not close. The market repriced hard on May 2 (-48pp, 50¢→2¢) as the campaign began and this polling became public; Borg's subsequent rally to 16¢ on May 5 (+14pp) reflected brief tactical optimism, but a fresh May 7 poll confirming Labour's 10pp lead triggered a final collapse to 5¢ (-11pp) that locked in the NO outcome by May 30 election day.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.