Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $60k volume
Why it resolved
Vance-led negotiations produced a tentative MOU by late May, but Trump refused final approval, demanding tougher nuclear terms and no sanctions relief. The market spiked +14pp on May 28 when Vance announced they were 'very close,' then crashed -18pp on May 24 when Trump's final determination meeting ended with no decision. The May 31 deadline passed without a formal diplomatic meeting—negotiations collapsed as Trump insisted on terms Iran rejected, ending any prospect of the Vance-Iran meeting specified by the market's resolution criteria.
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