Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $3.8M volume
Why it resolved
On April 29, 2026, Trump rejected Iran's negotiation proposals and reaffirmed his demand for no uranium enrichment in Iran, stating 'At this moment there will never be a deal unless they agree that there will never be nuclear weapons.' The market had opened at ~48¢ pricing in deal probability, but this hardline announcement collapsed negotiations; the price fell 38pp to 10¢ within hours—a clean reaction to Trump killing the diplomatic path forward. Subsequent negotiations in May yielded only an in-principle framework for Iran to 'give up' enriched uranium, not an agreement to continued enrichment. The contract drifted toward 0¢ into the June 1 deadline as no definitive Trump approval of continued enrichment materialized.
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Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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