Trump out as President by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $3.5M volume
Why it resolved
Trump remained in office throughout May 2026 with no resignation, removal, or sustained constitutional challenge. The market reflected near-zero probability of removal from the outset, decaying from 2¢ to 0¢ as the May 31 deadline approached with no triggering events. No catalyst moved the price materially—the steady drift to zero reflected the absence of any mechanism for removal.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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