Iran leadership change by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $3.4M volume
Why it resolved
Mojtaba Khamenei remained Supreme Leader through the May 31 deadline despite severe market skepticism about his viability. Appointed March 9 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, Mojtaba emerged as an exceptionally weak leader—never appearing publicly, ruling through AI-generated videos and written statements, and operating as merely one voice in a military consensus rather than a supreme authority. The market initially priced a 34¢ high hoping for leadership instability to trigger his ouster, but gradually repriced toward zero as his hold solidified despite Iran's near-complete military and economic collapse.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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