US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $146k volume
Why it resolved
The Trump-Xi summit on May 15 produced only modest side agreements on agriculture and trade councils, not a formal mutual tariff agreement. The market repriced from 65¢ to 28¢ (-37pp) the moment this outcome became clear—traders had anticipated a headline tariff deal but received only discussion frameworks instead. By deadline May 31, no comprehensive agreement materialized; the sides continued with rolled-over truces from prior periods.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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