Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $117k volume
Why it resolved
Putin's May 9 signal of willingness to meet Zelenskyy on neutral ground reversed early pessimism and drove the price spike to 18¢, but the subsequent May 14 military escalation (1,560+ drones and 56 missiles) after the May 9-11 ceasefire collapsed eliminated any prospect of a formal diplomatic meeting by the May 31 deadline, leaving the market to settle at 0¢.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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