US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $4.7M volume
Why it resolved
Despite intensive behind-the-scenes negotiations throughout May 2026, no formal in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Iranian representatives occurred by the May 31 deadline. The market priced this outcome accurately: it spiked on May 6 when negotiations appeared closest (+32pp to 61¢ on Axios report of near-final deal memo), but collapsed after Trump's May 29 situation room meeting ended without approval of any meeting (-31pp to 16¢), leaving the contract to decay toward zero as the deadline passed unmet.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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