Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $486k volume
Why it resolved
Trump indicated in mid-April he might visit Pakistan to seal an Iran deal, driving the price to 27¢, but cancelled envoy trips on April 25 after Iran disengaged. As May progressed with no Trump visit scheduled and the May 31 deadline approached, the contract bled from 16¢ to 6¢. Trump ultimately never visited Pakistan—he went to China instead—resolving the market NO on June 1.
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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