Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $77k volume
Why it resolved
Russia captured nearby settlements (Novodmitrivka, forests) but failed to capture Mykhailivka itself by the May 31 deadline. Market pricing reflected Russian tactical progress in late April (forward from 52¢) but gradually collapsed through May as the deadline approached without the final objective being taken, settling to 0¢ on June 1 when the NO resolution was confirmed.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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