Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?
June 1, 2026 · $210k volume
Why it resolved
Election announced April 27 for May 30; early May polling showed Labour commanding 29,000-vote lead (53.1% vs 42.6%), triggering the market to jump from 66¢ to 94¢ on May 2 at 11:00 UTC (+28pp) — pricing in Abela's strong polling advantage. Labour won decisively on May 31, and Abela was formally confirmed as PM on June 1, resolving YES at 100¢.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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