US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $87.9M volume
Why it resolved
No permanent peace deal materialized by May 31, 2026 deadline. After initial optimism in mid-April when negotiations resumed, talks repeatedly stalled over nuclear enrichment and Strait of Hormuz control. The May 28 tentative MOU was only a 60-day ceasefire extension pending Trump approval—explicitly temporary and non-permanent. The market priced in this outcome, with the price decaying from 36¢ on May 23 to 0¢ by June 1 as the deadline passed without a qualifying permanent agreement.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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