James Comey charges dropped by May 31?
June 1, 2026 · $53k volume
Why it resolved
The indictment unsealed April 28, 2026, was immediately repriced downward as legal analysts noted the 'true threat' standard in First Amendment case law is much higher than what an ambiguous Instagram post of '86 47' could satisfy. Comey's legal team signaled a vindictive prosecution defense on April 29, and by early May, sustained expert analysis (Washington Times, National Review, Freedom Forum, Cato) confirmed the prosecution faced monumental First Amendment hurdles. The market decayed from 57¢ (day 1) to 4¢ (day 4) as traders shifted from base-rate pricing (federal charges exist) to conviction-probability pricing (courts will likely dismiss on constitutional grounds). However, charges were never actually dropped by the May 31 deadline, so the contract locked in at 0¢ at resolution.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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